Everyone is good at predicting yesterday.閱讀歷史最易出現的盲點,就是看到他人軌跡時的不以為然。
不完整資訊下作決策,不止運氣還需要果斷地判斷實力,
由後往前推當然容易,因為局勢早已明朗,
我們很愛由今天新聞推測為何股票會漲,可是卻無法事前買下該股票。
http://movies.nytimes.com/2007/06/29/movies/29rata.html |
In many ways, the work of a critic is easy. We risk very little yet enjoy a position over those who offer up their work and their selves to our judgment.
從很多層面來說,挑剔總是比較簡單的,因為只需要冒一點點的風險,就能站在制高點,評斷別人努力許久的成果。
-- 《Ratatouille 料理鼠王》, 2007
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